Tue. Jul 23rd, 2024

Is it going to snow?

The $64,000 question is if it’s going to snow next week? The short answer is we just don’t know. What we do know is that if something does fall, it will be too little, too late, and too warm. Models out that far have not settled on a precipitation solution but have certainly agreed on one thing…IT WILL BE VERY COLD!

A disruption in the Polar Vortex, will send a pocket of Arctic air south in a trough dipping well into the southeast portion of the continent. This shot of cold air looks more like January than November but is not uncommon so don’t panic. This morning, we posted on Facebook a virtually identical outlook from 2014 for the same period in 2019.

After a relatively mild week this week, a first shot of cold air will arrive with lows this weekend dipping into the 20’s. Temps will moderate back up a bit before a really cold shot arrives Tuesday. Models are in disagreement on precipitation right now and the GFS (American Model) is an outlier. You have probably seen some posts elsewhere showing snow, sleet and freezing rain for Central NC Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now, the ensembles (that far out) are not suggesting any winter precipitation (outside of the mountains). For our mountain counties, a light accumulation is possible as as the front moves through into already cool air. Remember; for NC to get snow, we have to have cold air in place when precipitation arrives. This “event” is NOT unfolding that way. IF any rain falls Tuesday, there may be a quick changeover to frozen precipitation as cold air rushes in…and we mention this as a best case probability.

Polar Vortex

So how cold will it get? Wednesday 11/13/2019 will feature temperatures in the low 20’s with some teens possible. Shown below is from the GEM Ensemble and again, is an outlier so it’s probably too cold. The overall trend for this time frame is to be well below average as much as 10 – 15 degrees.

GEM Ensemble Mean

So now what?

Right now, just know that we are watching this very closely and will keep you in the loop as we get closer. Meanwhile, you should be making preparations to keep plumbing from freezing, unhooking garden hoses, and insuring that pets and livestock will be warm and have access to unfrozen water. We also caution you about sharing those hype-casts from social mediologists and wish-casters. We will have a very active and busy winter and you need to know actionable information…not wild fiction with clickbait.

Stay with NC Weather Happens, LLC and you’ll be in the know!

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