Tue. Jan 19th, 2021
  • Posted: 1/14//2015 6:00 pm
  • Expires: …
  • Weather Discussion. NOT a forecast.

New Operational GFS came online today and boy it is putting on a show!

Before all the shock-casters and wish-casters come out with forecasts and snow totals, we decided to jump out of the gate with a taste of what you will be bombarded with for the next 8 days.

With that being said, then… 

  1. This is not a forecast.
  2. This is the ONLY model to show this solution.
  3. There are 8 days for this to correct and WILL change.
  4. This is an operational model that until today, was run in parallel to the old one…and has generally done quite well this season.
  5. Be very careful with this stuff… 

The Setup for the 23rd (as depicted in the run).

A strong high pressure from the Plains passes just NW of our mountains into New England at the same time as a moderate low pressure system coming from the Gulf deepens and passes through SE NC and up the coast as a classic Nor’Easter. Cold air from the High to our North filters in through the mid and lower levels allowing precipitation to fall as all snow. Precipitable water amounts from the passing Low are generally in the 1.2 to 1.5 range.

In this case, this is the result….

WILD Model Ride!!!
WILD Model Ride!!!

Then…the next model run brings the Deepening Low in weaker and more to the south…

This is the result…

WILD Model Ride II
WILD Model Ride II

The Models…they are a changin’! We are entering into a more predictable weather pattern now, so these wild extremes may be settling down in the next week or so. Will it snow? There plenty out there that will convince you either way. NC Weather Happens will wait before speculating…

Bottom Line:

Winter is far from being over and we are on track to have it. We will have winter anyway! The end of the month is definitely looking to be cold as in Polar cold, so hang on for the ride. NC Weather Happens shares information with you in a responsible and ethical way and hope you will stay with us as we do just that…report what we see. “The weather is what it is and we don’t need to make it any different”.

NC Weather Happens. Enjoy it!

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