Forecast Verification

After a storm it is customary to review the forecast and analyse where things went wrong and how to improve on them. This is a summary of a more details report.

verification

NC Weather Happens Forecast Verification

 

  1. NE North Carolina was a bust here as we initially saw a departing cold High pressure leaving more cold air for the moisture to work with. It left the area while warm Gulf moisture overran any cold air in place. Sleet was reported with minor accumulations…not 8-12 inches of all snow.
  2. Below the I-85 corridor from Charlotte to Raleigh, was another bust. Warm air advected into the middle layers of the atmosphere changing snow into a mix of sleet and rain. We knew this would happen but saw it further to the south on the Coastal plain.
  3. Everywhere else has reported snowfall within the forecast ranges we published. The far eastern coastal plain reported a wintry mix with minor accumulations (before the rain eroded it away).
NWS verification

Official NWS Accumulations

Bottom Line:

Not a bad forecast and plenty of room for improvement. With spring fast approaching, we hope we are done with snow. Thank you for joining us leading up to, and through this event. Stick with us because…

NC Weather Happens. Enjoy it!

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