Expect Travel Delays Wednesday

Prepare a Plan B and be flexible as this is a developing situation

Models overnight have continued to show the development of a coastal low off the North Carolina coast Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to travel up the eastern seaboard into New England Thanksgiving day. Expect travel delays from North Carolina to Maine.

ecmwf_slp_precip_conus2_16

 

What does this bring to the North Carolina Piedmont? There is still uncertainty in the model solutions however they are continuing to merge on a final solution. Confidence for NC Weather Happens in the weather models is MEDIUM. We are just not completely convinced as a ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes is NOT in a traditionally favorable location…a location that would send cold air down the eastern side of the Appalachians (a process known as Cold Air Damming).

ecmwf_slp_precip_nc_16

The official NOAA forecast is mentioning the probability of wet snow mixing in with rain but this is likely to change towards a more wintry precipitation scenario. Currently there is just not enough cold air in the forecast or in the models to support frozen precipitation however as shown below with temps Wednesday afternoon right above freezing.

snowprobsecmwf_t2min_nc_16All that being said, IF all the conditions come together to bring us frozen precipitation then we could have a decent snow in the Piedmont. Again, NC Weather Happens remains skeptical right now and additional information is needed to make a final forecast. Tonight’s model runs should offer greater detail, so stay tuned.

The European Model for 2:00 Wednesday Afternoon:

ecmwf_snow_12_nc_16

 

The GFS Model for 2:00 Wednesday Afternoon:

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nc_29

 

 

 

NC Weather Happens. Enjoy it!

 

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