Time: 1/02/2015 5:15 PM
Response to Subscribers…
The inbox is full of notes all wanting to know the answer to this one question… “Where’s the Snow?” We have been looking for it and may have found a small chance for you!
The Setup:
The 10 mb temperatures over the Arctic North Pole (about 85,000 feet up in the stratosphere) are warming. This is normal for this time of the year and usually sends more Arctic air south. This is also good news for the erosion of that Pineapple Express we talked about on 12/11/14 (the ridge of High Pressure sending warm Pacific air into the deep south).
You already know we have thunderstorms Sunday followed by an Arctic Outbreak Wednesday and Thursday. This outbreak has some staying power although not as strong, well into the weekend. Lows overnight on the 10th-11th should be in the upper 20’s. We also have an approaching upper level disturbance approaching from the SW. Timing? Looks VERY interesting! Cold in place, moisture approaching from the Gulf…
Although we didn’t see the cold wave coming up, we did see the winter storm opportunity on the 12th in this article on 12/26/2014.
The European is seeing the 12th as well and giving us an inch of snow. Right now, we need some model consensus and time to make that happen and more certainty in the teleconnections interaction with the eroding Pacific ridge (sorry for the geekspeak). The new GFS (which has been our superstar so far) is suggesting less precipitation but is still calling for some snow. It does agree on the temperature with other models. We shall see! Is this “model hugging”? Perhaps, but we had to go there to answer the nagging question!!!
The Bottom Line:
Right now, the only thing models can agree on is the cold. The breakdown of the Pacific Ridge will bring long-range forecasts more inline, but until it normalizes, there will be High uncertainty beyond 4-5 days forecasting. This is the best opportunity we could find with ANY confidence and that confidence is LOW for measurable Snow.
Until then, keep the 12th on your RADAR for the likelihood of some winter weather. It’s been showing up here for over a week, and it doesn’t appear to be going away! Again, we shall see.
NC Weather Happens. Enjoy it!
