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A look behind the scenes at NOAA
When preparing the long-range forecast, NOAA forecasters check in with each other to bounce around ideas and look at broad scenarios that can be considered in their own forecasts. Last night was apparently very busy!
NOAA prepares and 8 day forecast on what they feel will be the most likely outcome…which takes us to Friday the 23rd. If you have been following these articles, then you know beginning the 23rd our first real winter opportunity presents itself. What follows below is taken from NOAA forecasters this morning…and they all see it! It’s just 1 days outside of the forecast period, so hang on!
(Some NWS offices use a lot of jargon here, but you’ll get the idea.)
Raleigh, NC Discussion:
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. HOWEVER… CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. A TURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK BEYOND. TRUE ARCTIC AIR MAY FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS THE NEW PATTERN FALLS INTO PLACE.
Greensville/Spartanburg, SC
AS WE GET INTO THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK…THE SITUATION GROWS MORE INTERESTING AND MORE UNCERTAIN. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A MEAN UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH A MORE ACTIVE SRN STREAM. THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF A SFC LOW ORGANIZING OVER THE NRN GULF AND MOVING PAST TO THE SOUTH AND OFF THE SE COAST WHILE SOME COLDER AIR IS NOT ALL THAT FAR REMOVED TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECWMF BOTH FEATURE SOME KIND OF LOW THAT COULD SPREAD WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST AREA…BUT NOT UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FCST LATE THURSDAY.
THE TIMING IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN…BUT THERE IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL DRY OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LULL OF SORTS FOR THURSDAY. THIS ACTION WILL ELIMINATE MOST OF THE MENTION OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING…ESPECIALLY ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX E OF THE MTNS. IN EFFECT…THOUGH…IT MIGHT ONLY BE A DELAY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS TREND. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED FURTHER WITH THE NEXT FCST PACKAGE… WHICH WILL INCLUDE FRIDAY.
Blacksburg, Va
MODELS STILL TRYING TO FIND A SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST OFFERING FROM THE GFS IS TO HAVE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT THURSDAY…THEN PHASE ON FRIDAY OFF THE EAST COAST. THE ECMWF SPLIT ON THE STREAMS THURSDAY AND WAITING ON ENERGY TO COME OUT OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SOLUTIONS KEEP MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
Wakefield, Va
NR SEASONABLE CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PDS W/ MNLY ZONAL FLO ALOFT. A COUPLE OF WK S/W TRACK QUICKLY W-E IN ZONAL FLO ACRS THE FA…ONE TUE…ANOTHER ON WED. ATTM…ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LGT AND SCT AT BEST…SO WILL JUST HAVE VRB CLDS TO MCLDY THOSE PDS. BY THU…LO PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INVOF SW CONUS W/ MOISTURE INCRSG OUT TO THE E OF THAT SYS ACRS THE SRN PLAINS. THE 12Z/15 GFS AND ECMWF CONT TO HAVE DIFFICULTY IN (EVENTUALLY) EJECTING THAT SYS TO THE E LATE NEXT WK…ALONG W/ ANY NRN STREAM SYS THAT WOULD BE DIVING SE OUT OF W/CNTRL CANADA. WILL BRING INCRSG CLDNS INTO THE FA ON THU…KEEPING POPS AOB 15% FOR NOW.
Wilmington, NC
LATEST GFS GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO…WHICH THEN MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THURSDAY…WHILE THE ECMWF DISMISSES ANY NOTABLE FEATURE. WHILE THE AREA COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN…CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ATTM…AND THUS HAVE KEPT FAIRLY LOW POP INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OF INTEREST LIES JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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