Good melting forecast for the next couple of days…
After our storm, look for warming today and tomorrow But Black Ice will remain a problem Tuesday morning with temps in the 20’s west and near freezing east. Areas that received frozen precipitation will typically run cooler for a few days following the storm.
Wednesday Night into Thursday morning and slow moving front will pass through the State. A strong area of low pressure will develop along the front offshore and move up the coast. Following the front will be cooler air (but not Arctic cold) so we may have a period of light freezing rain and perhaps a snow shower as the precipitation moves out of the area. This is looking like a “cold chasing rain” scenario. Areas with the best chances of seeing frozen precipitation are from the Triad Area east to the coastal plain.
The mountains stand to see accumulating snow but this is winter so virtually every frontal passage brings a coating. They can expect to see 1-3 inches in the higher elevation especially in the southern mountains.
It is very important to note that there is very little model agreement on this scenario and little model consistency from run to ruin. We will be monitoring this though and let you know immediately when the data becomes more conclusive. At this time, keep Wednesday night and Thursday morning in your plans for the possibility of light snow and/or freezing rain. Temperatures Thursday will rebound into the upper 30’s and low 40’s so any new accumulation is expected to not remain through the day.
The Next 30 days:
Keep the following dates on your “Winter Weather Opportunity Calendar” for February.
- February 2
- February 18
Long range models are really good at showing patterns and these two dates stick out as winter elements come together close enough to warrant an extra look as we move closer.
For our newcomers, don’t forget to review our Winter Forecast published October 24, 2015…